Maley Market Strategy Podcast

This week’s podcast focused on the growing challenges facing the bond market and the broader implications for risk assets. We discussed whether the administration’s recent move to become more involved in buying U.S. Treasury bonds is a desperate attempt to support the market, while emphasizing that rising long-term interest rates are about much more than inflation—they also reflect massive Treasury and corporate debt supply and enormous budget deficits in the U.S., Japan, France, the U.K., and elsewhere. We also examined the troubling underperformance of the high-yield market, which could be an important warning signal, and discussed why weakness in semiconductor stocks is particularly concerning given its resemblance to the market action just before the technology bubble burst in 2000. On the consumer, we are seeing some signs of deterioration, but not enough yet to suggest a serious breakdown. Finally, we discussed the bullish breakouts in gold and silver and how a weaker dollar could provide the catalyst for another powerful rally in precious metals, similar to what we saw during the second half of last year.

In this week's podcast, we highlight why the recent bounce in the tech sector (and thus the stock market) could turn out to be merely something that is working off its oversold condition...and not the beginning of a new leg to the bull market......We also discuss why the rise in long-term bond yields is something that should stay with us...and why the recent criticism of new Fed Chairman Warsh is way off base.  (The Street needs to adjust to him...not the other way around.  Investors and economist have become too spoiled by the hand-holding by the Fed for the past two decades.).....On top of these issues, we also express our view on the most recent developments in the Middle East and what it will mean for the markets going forward.  We also highlight several groups and stocks which should outpefrorm in the months ahead.  

In this week's Podcast, we discussed the implications of the newest cracks in the wall of the bullish scenario for the stock market......This does not mean that the market cannot see a very-short-term bounce soon.  However, as these cracks get bigger and become more numerous, it's creating the kind of "set up" which could be followed by a much deeper decline in risk assets in the coming months than most people think is possible right now.  

In this week's edition, Matt and Mary discuss how the recent "sell the news" reaction from many tech companies is spreading to other areas of the stock market this earnings season.  This is taking place at a time when the equity markets in Asia are seeing some significant cracks...and global long-term yields are pushing higher once again.....This is also taking place at a time when the major averages (and the tech ETFs/indices) are testing key support levels.  Therefore, the action over the next 1-2 weeks is going to be extremely important......That said, there are a couple of sectors that do look quite good right now...and we discuss a few individual names from those groups.

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss how there are many too many companies whose stocks are trading lower...frequently much lower...after they report earnings/guidance.  This is taking place for the stock of companies whose earnings/guidance were excellent...as well as those whose stocks have not rallied recently (and thus not "priced in" the good news.......We also discuss how the financial stocks are the one group that is the exception to this trend right now...and what to look for from specific stocks in this sector.....On top of this, we discuss the geopolitical changes that are taking place...AND we highlight several stocks which we believe will outperform in the second half of this year.  

In this week's episode, we discuss why the fact that the MAGS Mag 7 ETF has fallen into correction territory is a big problem for the stock market.  Yes, there is some more good news on the chip group, but there are even some cracks showing up in that group.....Therefore, investors will need to remain extremely nimble going forward......HOWEVER, since the trend for the market is still higher, we also discuss some of the groups (and specific stocks) which should benefit this summer from a "rotational" move...if the rally continues in Q3.  

In this week's podcast, we discuss the how the proposed deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is something that has likely already been priced into the market.  However, if it quickly becomes evident that the market can rally further...through a "rotation" move, we have several areas that we believe can outperform......We also discuss how that change at the top of the Federal Reserve could/should have a big impact on the markets going forward.  More than anything else, it's likely going to indicate that the Fed will be more focused on inflation...and less focused on helping risk assets

In this week's podcast, we discuss how the delayed reaction to Broadcom's earnings last week...and the news that more data center projects are getting delayed/cancelled...are the kinds of cracks which could be signaling some significant weakness soon in the AI related stocks.....We also discuss the key levels to keep an eye on in the tech sector to watch...which, if broken, will signal an important change in trend......On top of this, we discuss the way the Middle East problem just won't go away...as well as the new developments in long-term yields (and in the private markets as well).....In other words, we're heading into an extremely interesting situation for the markets.

In this week's episode, Mary and I discuss how this extremely narrow the stock market continues to be, but that if we continue to makes some great picks (like I have over the past two months), one can still make money some nice profits..........HOWEVER, we also have to be very careful about betting on a broad rebound.  Also, we like stocks that have been beaten down...and are just beginning to breakout...over the ones that have seen huge runs over the past month or two.  (The chip stock index is now just as overbought as it was at the March 2000 high.).........We also discuss a new group with is on the cusp of a breakout, BUT that we need to see it break a key level before we jump on the train.

In this week's podcast, Mary and I argue that since the stock market never priced in the huge run up in oil prices this spring...a decline in crude prices is not going to help the stock market rally a lot further.  Instead, it is going to depend on continued flow of net liquidity into the system.  
This CAN take place, so we're not turning wildly bearish.  However, given that the earnings growth for the vast majority of S&P companies is mediocre, the issue of earnings growth is not playing the kind of bullish role that the mainstream on the Street says it is.  
Finally, we've had some GREAT picks over the past several weeks...and we provide a few more in this week's episode.